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October home sales continue downward trend

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Home sales continued their unsettling trend downward October both locally and around the state, according to figures released Wednesday by the Florida Association of Realtors.

“I know as an owner/broker I should be looking at those numbers every month when they come out, but it’s gotten to the point that I sometimes feel like I don’t want to hear it,” said Joe Pavich, owner/broker of Estero-based Realty World Florida. “I always try to stay upbeat, and I think we’re near the bottom, but the numbers can be discouraging.”

Upheaval in the mortgage industry and tightening credit were largely to blame for the numbers, according to the FAR. October house closings largely represent deals negotiated in August, when mortgage industry troubles were peaking.

In another development connected to the ailing housing industry, the Bonita Bay Group this week announced its third layoff of the year. Fourteen employees — mostly managers — were let go Tuesday, said Meredith Parsons, a marketing coordinator with the company. To date Bonita Bay has laid of 74 people, leaving the company with a work force of about 1,300. Other developers, including WCI Communities, Centex and First Home Builders, also have made deep staffing cuts to survive a challenging market.

Parsons said the company hopes to avoid additional layoffs, although “it all depends on what the market does.”

Laid off workers will receive severance pay and job-placement assistance, she said.

As for the October housing numbers, sales of single-family homes in October in Lee County were down 36 percent from a year ago, and the median home price was down 4 percent for the same period. The number of single-family home sales tumbled from 630 to 405 over the year, and the median price dropped from $249,800 to $239,300.

Figures for Lee County condos were also bleak, with the median price and the number of sales both down 28 percent. The number of condo sales went from 145 in October 2006 to 105 last month, and the median price dipped from $270,700 to $195,800.

Cape Coral’s October figures were not yet available when the totals were calculated, said Marla Martin, FAR’s communications director. Adjustments were made, however, to the October 2006 present a year-over-year Lee County picture that was as accurate as possible.

“That happens from time to time and when it does we take the same component out of the previous year’s numbers so we’re talking apples to apples,” she said.

But even with the Cape Coral data missing from October’s numbers, Brett Ellis, a partner with The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty in Fort Myers, saw something encouraging when he compared October not to the prior October, but to September of this year. The number of Realtor-assisted sales of single-family homes was up from 327 to 405 — and the September figures were calculated with Cape Coral numbers included, which means the increase was probably higher.

“I see it as a positive sign that the number of transactions may be going up in this market even though some people will still say it’s down 4 percent from last year,” he said.

Ellis said while overall inventories remain high, he’s seeing signs that developer-owned inventory is shrinking significantly. Developers have been offering deep incentives during the tight market in the form of free upgrades and low pricing for never lived-in homes — stalling sales of existing homes.

Ellis and Pavich said they expect to see more improvement once existing and pending foreclosures are absorbed. Earlier this week Lee Clerk of Courts Charlie Green said there were 1,809 foreclosures in Lee County in October, up from 1,326 in September. It’s an upward trend Ellis believes will continue for the next five to eight months. After that he anticipates a “bouncing along the bottom” of the market.

Pavich said sales prices today resemble what they were in 2002 and 2003, and serious sellers need to remember keep that in mind.

“Nobody cares what you paid for your house and nobody cares what you owe on your house,” he said. “It’s a buyers market and that’s what the price needs to reflect.”

At the market’s peak in December 2005, the median price of a single-family home in Lee County was $322,300.

Figures for Collier County were not available. The Naples Area Association of Realtors provides them to FAR to be included in statewide tallies but does not allow FAR to release them individually.

Statewide, the number of single-family home sales fell 29 percent from 12,846 in October 2006 to last month; and the median price dropped 8 percent, from $242,700 to $222,100. The number of Florida condo sales dropped from 3,508 to 2,819 over the year, a dip of 20 percent. The median price of a condo in Florida dropped 8 percent, from $209,500 to $192,400 during the same period.

Meanwhile, in a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing single-family existing homes held steady in October although condo sales were down.

Single-family home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.37 million in October, which is unchanged from September. Sales of single-family homes were down a significant 20.8 percent from the 5.52 million-unit level in October 2006. The median existing single-family home price was $205,700 in October, down 6.3 percent from a year ago.

Condo sales fell 9.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000 units in October, which is down from 660,000 in September. However, year-over-year figures saw condo sales drop 20.2 percent below the 752,000-unit pace in October 2006. The median existing condo price was $223,500 in October, up 4.9 percent from a year ago.

Interest rates in October for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.38 percent, according to Freddie Mac. That’s just slightly higher than October 2006, when the average rate was 6.36 percent.

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"Figures for Collier County were not available because the Naples Area Association of Realtors does not release them."

Just another reason why the NABOR are a bunch of liars. The only reason they do not release them is because they know how bad it really is in Collier County.

#1 Posted by Sanity on November 28, 2007 at 3:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)

I hope prices go down a lot more it'll be a good buying opportunity.

#2 Posted by doodlebug on November 28, 2007 at 3:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Mike,

Its going to be awhile.

#3 Posted by Sanity on November 28, 2007 at 3:49 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Then we can buy really low and wait until the prices go up and sell at a profit........hey wait

#4 Posted by NeezDutz on November 28, 2007 at 4:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)

BTW the fed will lower rates again

#5 Posted by NeezDutz on November 28, 2007 at 4:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)

That'll be great, the lower rates will fit perfectly with the low salary's in Naples but most people still won't be able to buy in Naples at these prices, so the beat goes on.

#6 Posted by almostdone on November 28, 2007 at 5:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)

NeezDutz,

You mean the Fed keeps debasing our dollar every time they cut thinking its going to help. Let the market correct.

#7 Posted by Sanity on November 28, 2007 at 5:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)

It appears that the dollar has been slowly climbing for the past month

#8 Posted by NeezDutz on November 28, 2007 at 5:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)

The Fed keeps complaining about the low savings rate of Americans and then keeps cutting the interest rate. Why would anybody bank money when interest rates are lower than the rise in the Consumer Price Index? You lose $1 for every $100 you bank. Anyway, with housing prices going down closer to their "true value" it will be a while before the housing market bottoms out and people start buying again.

#9 Posted by naplesdad on November 28, 2007 at 10:24 p.m. (Suggest removal)

NeezDutz what are you basing your comment on? The dollar is tanking. TANKING. It is $2.06 to the English pound, and $1.46 to the Euro. That is not slowly rising, that is getting worse and worse. The dollar hasn't been this low against the pound since the early to mid 80's. Guess I won't be going to Europe this summer. Neither will a lot of other Americans. It's great for the Germans and English, though, everything here is a bargain.

#10 Posted by flanative on November 28, 2007 at 10:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)

This ain't gonna last forever. Once the flippers and the like are finally flushed out of this market, things will improve nicely. Also, interest rates are still very low. What a great time to buy.

#11 Posted by Greglpc on November 28, 2007 at 11:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)

DOH!

#12 Posted by volochine on November 29, 2007 at 1:12 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Greglpc,

Great time to buy? You are definitely an out of work realtor. Only a realtor or an idiot with no common sense would recommend buying a place now.

How do you keep a straight face when you blatantly lie to people like that?

#13 Posted by Sanity on November 29, 2007 at 7:41 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Sanity; why is now not a good time to buy? Also you state it will be a while, how long and what is your basis for that statement, or is it just your opinion? Finally NABOR is a bunch of liars...have you called NABOR, or asked to meet with the president to get this information? Or are you arm-chair quarterbacking like 99% of the complainers who blog here. Until you know what you're talking about, ZIP IT!

#14 Posted by trehuger on November 29, 2007 at 8:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Trehuger,

Its not a good time to buy because prices are simply too high for income levels. If you look at the case shiller housing index, it shows housing as a rapidly depreciating asset. Why would you want to buy a rapidly depreciating asset? Do you enjoy sleeping at night? I do.

Also, the NABOR will not release the numbers now but they did during boom times. Why not release them now?

Now if you want to buy now and lose money I could not care less for you. I'm just trying to help those few on the fence to wait until prices are inline with historical trends.

#15 Posted by Sanity on November 29, 2007 at 8:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Well on 11/06 the dollar was only worth 92.5 cents
now it's worth 99.4 cents
That's just over 7% the Euro and the Pound have not increased as much.
Hence the gaining ground.

#16 Posted by NeezDutz on November 29, 2007 at 9:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Sanity and all the folks like him just love gloom and doom. You must be ecstatic when you learn someone has terminal cancer-you can predict death and be right.
Sure the housing market was inflated in the feeding frenzy created by flippers but what an a rediculous statement to make that people should wait until prices are inline with historical trends. Historical trends show that over time real estate always increases.
Finally, unlike automobiles and boats, real estate is not a depreciating asset you idiot.

#17 Posted by stickerman on November 29, 2007 at 10:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)

The property market has bottomed or is at near bottom when the cost of owning is just a bit above the cost of renting... Actually, in nice places that are more desirable than average, there is usually reasonable premium for owning...

#18 Posted by Overseas on November 29, 2007 at 10:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)



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