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NAPLES — Schools will close. Shelters will open. AT 3 p.m. Collier Area Transit will begin shuttling, for free, those seeking refuge at one of Collier’s three shelters -- Golden Gate High School, Palmetto Ridge High School and Immokalee High School. Pets aren’t permitted and Domestic Animal Services will not be accepting them, since the county doesn’t want to take business from private enterprise.

County officials will know more by 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. but as of now commissioners have declared a state of emergency, but not the curfew requested by the Collier County Sheriff’s Office.

In an meeting at 9 a.m. this morning, Collier Emergency Management Director Dan Summers, said the greatest concern was the warm water surface between Cuba and southern Collier County.

That is like "throwing fuel" on the fire, and a tropical storm can easily intensify into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

The storm would escalate rapidly. But even before that county residents are susceptible to the radius of storm-force winds," Summers said.

And then, "we have to be worrying about the center of the storm," he said. which was approaching 50 miles per hour as it hovered over Key West, ready to strike around noon.

"One of our ongoing challenges is in (the storm’s) movement. We might see a decrease in forward motion or increase," he said. Those winds would pick up to 60 miles per house as it comes across Key West.

Residents should start expecting high winds at around 9 p.m. And at midnight coastal Collier will be approaching high tide.

"I can’t emphasize enough to make sure all your preparation are (completed) in the daylight hours, so tonight we don’t have unnecessary movement or travel tonight."

High tides due to lunar pull at 2 a.m. Tuesday will be exacerbated by storm surge of 4 to 6 feet.

"That’s much better than we expected yesterday when we were talking about 6 to 8 feet," Summers said. Winds will be increasing tonight, so officials want everyone to get to high ground, especially those in mobile home parks.

By 10 .p.m. Tuesday the county anticipates around 70 mile per hour winds, noting that at 72 mph, the tropical storm officially becomes a Category 1 hurricane.

"We’re riding a lot of thresholds," he said, however officials believe there is a less than 24 percent probability that Fay will grow beyond a Category 2 hurricane.

After school activities in North Collier Park will cease at 5 p.m.

Evacuation is still voluntary only, but those in mobile home parks should consider seeking higher land.

Greatest areas of flooding, due to rain, are likely to be State Road 92, State Road 29, South Marco, Vanderbilt Reach, Wiggins Pass, Rock Hill and the areas surrounding Wilson Boulevard. Maximum rainfall from this storm is expected to be 12 inches. At 2 a.m. Naples tides would normally be about 2.7 feet. The surge on top of that will mostly likely be another 4 feet just after midnight.

State Road 29 and State Road 92 might become impassable, so Sheriff Don Hunter will decide whether to close those roads.

Marco Fire Chief Mike Murphy, who noted this is the 10th storm event on which he’s worked with Summers, said Fay is bit of puzzle.

"Being a tropical storm, we’re in a bit of a quagmire. It seems like (not just a Collier or Lee County storm) but an all-Florida storm," he said.

Naples Fire Chief Jim McEvoy had little to say, except that like every other agency, the city is monitoring the path and strength of the storm.

"We haven’t made any decision businesses closing, however we do support the county in its recommendation for voluntary evacuation of those west of U.S. 41," McEvoy said.

School Superintendent Dennis Thompson said he’s been in contact with the rest of the county all weekend, and cooperating with the health department.

That’s why he’s canceled all after school activities beyond 5 p.m. tonight.

Sheriff Col. Tom Storrar said his department is "fully in emergency mode."

But he said the office was asking for a curfew.

When the winds and rain come Monday night there are likely to be power outages.

With those outages, "we don’t want people on the roadways," he said.

Commissioners authorized Chairman Tom Henning to sign a curfew memo when he believes it is necessary.

Storrar also wanted to restrict the sale of alcohol at the time that curfew is issued.

"We wouldn’t want someone driving around (high) in 50 mile per hour winds," he said.

County Manager Jim Mudd acknowldedged that alcohol ban was issued during Hurricane Wilma. But it would just be for a short period of time.

"We don’t want to have a negative impact anymore than necessary," Storrar said. "It would be a very defined window...probably around 10 p.m. to 11 p.m." The times of darkness are their greatest concern,he said.

Emergency officials are mostly concerned that Fay will spawn hurricanes.

As for flooding, Clarence Tears, firector of South Florida Water Management’s District Big Cypress Basin, said he’s lowering water pre-storm to allow for surges.

"We have staff out looking at our system," Tears said.

The Lake Trafford aquifer isn’t an issue because it is historically two feet below average this time of year.

"We do have a lot of space," Tears said.

Transportation Director Norm Feder said the county is working hard to secure construction sites and to get "all projects battened down."

He’s been discussing the Interstate-75 (IROX) project with state officials, Feder said.

Courts are shutting down Monday afternoon and will be closed tomorrow, said Mark Middlebrook, an assistant Clerk of Courts.

Supervisor of Election Jennifer Edwards is closing early polling places.

Public Utilities Director Jim Deloney said the county will not be collecting solid waste on Tuesday, so it would be best if they would keep their garbage cans and recycling bins in their garages so they don’t become airborn weapons.

Finally, Mudd asked commissioners to transfer $500,00 into his budget for emergency expenditures.

The governor would have to ask the President of the United States for a disaster declaration. If that happens, in the first 72 hours, the Federal Emergency Management Agency share of the cost would range from 75 to 100 percent. Most county county meetings for the next few days will be cancelled, but the Collier County Planning Commission meeting, which must be publicly noticed, will be continued until 8:30 Aug. 29, Mudd said.

Again, Summers recommended voluntary evacuation for everyone west of and south of U.S. 41, anticipating significant rainfall and flooding in Chokoloskee, Everglades City and Vanderbilt Beach.

Shelters will be open for business at 4 p.m.