DR. POLITICS

Peter Bergerson is a professor of public affairs at Florida Gulf Coast University. Before coming to Southwest Florida in 2002, he spent 34 years at Southeast Missouri State University, 17 as the Chair of the Political Science Department. If you have questions or responses to Dr. Politics columns, please contact Peter Bergerson at pbergers@fgcu.edu. Users can find the complete archive of the Dr. Politics columns here.

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In the midst of a very competitive presidential campaign, President Bush will take center stage and dominate the political news with his assessment of the nation and our role in international affairs.

On Monday night, President Bush will deliver his State of the Union Address to the nation, a Joint Session of Congress, his Cabinet officers, military commanders and members of the Supreme Court.

This speech will be an opportunity for him to shape public opinion and to rally the nation to his goals and policies for the year. As President Lincoln said: “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.”

This address to the nation and the world presents an opportunity for Bush to set the agenda for his last year in office and to tell the nation what he hopes to accomplish while the nation selects his successor.

Observation and analysis of State of the Union addresses take at least three perspectives: the policy perspective, the rhetorical perspective and the political perspective.

The policy aspect of his speech will include substantive issues the president wants Congress and his administration to work on during the coming year. Early reports indicate the president will focus on four major themes: fixing the economy, legislative re-authorization of the Foreign Intelligence Act, developments in Iraq and foreign trade agreements.

The rhetorical skills of the president will also be interesting to observe and important to his political success. Past presidents have used five speech techniques to shape public approval. One is the labeling or ‘name calling’ technique. This approach demonizes individuals, groups or political opponents as “extremists,” “terrorists” or “radicals,” to invoke a negative reaction.

Look for another common practice of the use of ‘glittering generalities,’ or phrases that sound good but have no inherent meaning. Often these phrases have been used so much that they become clichés, such as “we must do the right thing.”

Expect the president to invoke the name of his political heroes. The ‘transfer’ strategy is frequently used by presidents to link themselves with a popular past president, such as Ronald Reagan or John Kennedy. Presidents are suggesting that if you liked past leaders and their policies, you will support theirs’ too.

Watch for the president to use the ‘testimonial’ technique. This practice is designed to show the public that individuals of high creditability endorse or support his agenda. Often presidents will enlist support from a member of the opposition party to show bi-partisan support for his program.

Also, expect to see the President employ ‘the bandwagon effect’ Monday night. The President wants to convey the idea that his particular policy has widely held support and that everyone should support him too. He is the leader of the policy parade.

Keep in mind that the successes of the State of the Union Address are judged by sound bites, not policy positions. Analysis and political commentary of his speech will focus on well crafted and specifically designed capsules that emphasize his themes.

The State of the Union Speech will also be judged politically. Will the president indicate a bi-partisan approach to working with Congress or will he have a ‘take it or leave it’ attitude with the Democrat-led Congress? The president’s willingness to cooperate will set the tone for executive/congressional relations through out the year.

The positions the President takes on important issues will also serve as a platform for Republicans during the campaign season. President Bush’s issues and positions will be used as a political and policy yardstick to measure Republican candidates’ party loyalty. The issues and politics will become a measure of the intra-party support for the president and the party.

Finally, in this speech President Bush will address his legacy. In this speech, the president must demonstrate that he is still politically relevant — a task that will be a challenge. The political environment is often unresponsive to a president in his eighth and final year in office.

President Bush faces the state of the union with no heir apparent, with a war on terrorism on two fronts, an unsettled economy and a domestic political agenda that chants for change.