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Hurricane Ike roars ashore in eastern Cuba
Hurricane now forecast to go south of Florida into Gulf
Hurricane Ike's five-day forecast released at 11 p.m. Sunday by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
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NASSAU, Bahamas The National Hurricane Center in Miami says powerful Hurricane Ike has roared ashore in eastern Cuba.
The center said Ike slammed into Cuba's Holguin province at 9:45 p.m. EDT Sunday as a dangerous Category 3 storm.
At 11 p.m., Ike's center was located on the north coast of eastern Cuba near Cabo Lucrecia, about 135 miles east of Camaguey. The hurricane center says Ike is moving to the west near 13 mph and will be near or over central Cuba later Monday as it rakes the island.
Forecasters say Ike is expected to weaken as it moves across land in the coming days before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Authorities are urging coastal dwellers along the Gulf from Florida to Mexico to monitor Ike because of its uncertain path.
At 8 p.m.
At 8 p.m., the center of Hurricane Ike was located about 60 miles north of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Weather Service reports.
Ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A west to west-northwest motion is expected tonight and Monday. On this track, the core of the hurricane will move over eastern Cuba later tonight and early Monday and near or over central Cuba later on Monday, the weather service said.
Ike is still a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds near 120 mph but forecasters say some weakening is likely as Ike moves over eastern and central Cuba during the next day or so, the weather service said.
At 5 p.m.
The National Hurricane Center says Ike has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with winds near 120 mph approaching eastern Cuba.
At 5 p.m., the center of Hurricane Ike was located about 90 miles west of Great Inagua Island and about 75 miles north-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Weather Service reports.
Ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A west to west-northwest motion is expected tonight and Monday.
On this track, the core of the hurricane will continue to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and over or near eastern Cuba tonight and tomorrow, the weather service said.
Posted earlier
Ike ripped off roofs, swept away boats and collapsed a bridge on the last road into a flooded Haitian city on Sunday as it roared over the southern Bahamas as a ferocious Category 4 hurricane. The Florida Keys evacuated and Cuba prepared for a direct hit.
Five adults and five children drowned in their homes or were swept to their deaths as Ike's driving rains hit Haiti, raising that country's death toll to 262 from four tropical storms in recent weeks.
With Sunday's downpours topping flooding from Hanna, Gustav and Fay, officials said they had no choice but to open an overflowing dam, inundating more homes and possibly causing lasting damage to Haiti's "rice bowl," a farming area whose revival is key to rescuing the starving country.
Ike's eye hit the Bahamas' Great Inagua island, where "ferocious" wind threatened to peel plywood from the windows of a church sheltering about 50 people, shelter manager Janice McKinney.
"Oh my God, I can't describe it," McKinney said, adding that the pastor led everyone in prayer while the winds howled.
Some of the strongest winds hit the low-lying British territory of Turks and Caicos, where Premier Michael Misick said more than 80 percent of the homes were destroyed, fishermen lost boats and people who didn't take refuge in shelters were cowering in closets and under stairwells, "just holding on for life."
"They got hit really, really bad," Misick said. "A lot of people have lost their houses, and we will have to see what we can do to accommodate them."
It was too early to know of any deaths or injuries on these islands.
At 11 a.m. EDT, Ike's eye was just east of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. It was moving west at 13 mph and was expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba, still about 130 miles away.
"All we can do is hunker down and pray," reserve police officer Henry Nixon said from a shelter on Great Inagua where about 85 people huddled around a radio.
Great Inagua, closer to Haiti than to the Bahamian capital of Nassau, is the southernmost island in the Bahamas archipelago. It has tens of thousands of pink West Indian flamingos — the world's largest breeding colony — and about 1,000 people. Both populations took shelter — the pink flamingos gathered under mangrove trees ahead of the storm.
"They know what to do. They always find the sheltered areas," Nixon said Sunday as Ike blew shingles off rooftops.
Rain drove in horizontal sheets and wind tore through roofs across the Turks and Caicos, which has little natural protection from an expected storm surge of up to 18 feet.
In South Caicos, a fishing-dependent island of 1,500 people, most homes were damaged, the airport was under water, power will be out for weeks, and every single boat was swept away despite being towed ashore for safety, Minister of Natural Resorces Piper Hanchell said.
Tourism chairman Wayne Garland was text-messaging with two people in Grand Turk during the height of the storm. "They were literally in their bathroom because their roofs were gone," he said. "Eventually they were rescued."
In Providenciales, there was flooding, roof damage and downed power lines but no injuries, he said.
"Fortunately, we were able to evacuate most of the people in low-lying areas to shelters, so thankfully I don't expect to have any injuries. We'll keep our fingers crossed that that's the case," Garland said as he left to assess the damage.
Ike's pelting rains couldn't have come at a worse time for Haiti. The Mirebalais bridge collapsed in the floods, cutting off the last land route into Gonaives, Agriculture Minister Joanas Gay told state-run Radio Nationale. Half the homes in Gonaives, Haiti's fourth-largest city, were already under water.
Gay warned residents in the surrounding Artibonite valley to evacuate immediately because an overflowing dam would have to be opened on Sunday, sending more water into the Gonaives floodplain. And in Gonaives itself, the waters were rising even as aid groups struggled to reach people with little or no access to food or water for days.
Heavy rains also pelted the Dominican Republic, Haiti's neighbor on the island of Hispaniola, where about 4,000 people were evacuated from northern coastal towns.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Ike's eye would strike Cuba's northern coast Sunday night and possibly hit Havana, the capital of 2 million people with many vulnerable old buildings, by Monday night.
Cuba evacuated mountainous and coastal regions of Holguin province, and about 200 foreign tourists were brought out from the northern Santa Lucia beach resort. Workers rushed to protect coffee plants and other crops and organized food and cooking-oil distribution efforts.
At the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay in southeast Cuba, all ferries were secured and beaches were off limits. The military said cells containing the detainees — about 255 men suspected of links to the Taliban and al-Qaida — are hurricane-proof.
"People have been forewarned for a day," Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Robert Lamb said. "It's starting to get breezy."
Once Ike leaves Cuba, forecasters said the storm might swipe at the Florida Keys before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Where it goes from there was harder to predict, leaving millions from Florida to Mexico wondering where it will eventually strike.
"These storms have a mind of their own," Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said. Tourists were ordered out of the Keys on Saturday, and residents began evacuating Sunday, starting with the southernmost islands, along the narrow highway to the mainland.
In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal set up a task force to prepare for more possible havoc only days after an historic, life-saving evacuation of more than 2 million people from Hurricane Gustav.
"Our citizens are weary and they're tired and they have spent a lot of money evacuating," worried New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. "It will be very difficult to move the kind of numbers out of this city that we moved during Gustav."
Off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Lowell was moving away from land.
Posted at 9 a.m.:
Hurricane Ike takes aim at Bahamas, Cuba
Hurricane Ike damaged most of the homes on Grand Turk island as it roared onto the Bahamas, raked Haiti's flooded cities with rain and threatened the Florida Keys on its way to Cuba as a ferocious Category 4 storm Sunday.
Turks and Caicos premier Michael Misick said Ike damaged more than 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk and South Caicos islands. Hundreds lost their roofs and all the fishermen lost boats as the hurricane made a near-direct hit.
Hundreds took refuge in shelters. Others have been cowering in closets and under stairwells and "just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad," Misick said Sunday morning. "A lot of people have lost their house, and we will have to see what we can do to accommodate them."
At 8 a.m. EDT, Ike's eye was just east of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. It was moving west-southwest at 14 mph and was expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba.
"It's looking terrible," said reserve police officer Henry Nixon from inside a shelter on the Bahamas' Great Inagua Island, where about 85 people huddled around a radio. "All we can do is hunker down and pray."
Great Inagua, which is closer to Haiti than to the Bahamian capital of Nassau, is the southernmost island in the Bahamas archipelago. It has the world's largest breeding colony of West Indian flamingos, and about 1,000 people.
"Everybody is very concerned because of the strength of this one. They want to make sure they survive," administrator Preston Cunningham said after authorities went door-to-door urging residents to seek higher ground. All power was cut as a precaution Sunday morning, and about 135 people took refuge in shelters.
Grand Turk, the capital of the tiny British territory of Turks and Caicos, is home to about 3,000 people, and has little natural protection from the sea and expected storm surge of up to 18 feet. Rain was driving through in horizontal sheets early Sunday and wind was tearing through some roofs. It was too early to know of any deaths or injuries.
The airport in Providenciales closed after thousands of tourists and residents evacuated from the typically tranquil island chain.
Desiree Adams, along with 11 members of her family, could hear the winds through the storm shutters of her Grand Turk home. The power was out, but they had water and food and battery-powered lanterns if necessary.
"We're all just laying down looking up at the dark ceiling and talking," Adams, a personal adviser to the island chain's chief minister for tourism issues, said by mobile phone.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ike's eye was expected to move over eastern Cuba Sunday night and into central Cuba by late Monday on a track that will likely take it into the Gulf of Mexico.
"These storms have a mind of their own," Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said as tourists were ordered out of the vulnerable Florida Keys on Saturday. Authorities planned a phased evacuation for residents Sunday morning, starting with the southernmost islands. "What we have to do is be prepared, be smart, vigilant and alert."
In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal set up a task force to prepare for the possibility of more havoc after getting slammed by Hurricane Gustav.
Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in southeast Cuba went on "condition of readiness one" early Sunday morning, meaning all ferries were secured, beaches were off limits and private cars were banned from roads at the U.S. base, where some 255 men suspected of links to the Taliban and al-Qaida live in what the military says are hurricane-proof cells.
"People have been forewarned for a day," Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Robert Lamb said. "It's starting to get breezy."
The approach of the hurricane also raised alarm in Haiti, where floods from Tropical Storm Hanna killed at least 167 people by Saturday. Hundreds fled the waterlogged city of Gonaives as Ike approached, and international aid groups were struggling to reach people with little or no access to food or water for days.
"We are very concerned about Ike," said Holly Inurreta of Catholic Relief Services. "Any bit more of rain and Gonaives will be cut off again."
Heavy rains also were pelting Haiti's neighbor on the island of Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic, where about 4,000 people were evacuated from northern coastal towns.
Cuba, which suffered a devastating hit from Gustav, was directly in Ike's projected path, and warned its people to be ready.
Just ahead of Ike's arrival, the Bahamas government had urged tourists to evacuate the sparsely populated southeastern islands and the Royal Bahamas Defence Force dispatched marines to bring food and water to the eastern islands of Mayaguana and San Salvador.
Off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Lowell was moving away from land.
From 5 a.m. Sunday:
Hurricane Ike could gain some strength from its 135 mph winds at Category 4 this morning before making landfall later on Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. update. Further, the storm's forecast track was moved back slightly closer to south Florida with the latest update.
Hurricane watches and warnings have been raised by the Bahamas, Cuba and authorities on Hispanola.
While the forecast track pushed Ike slightly closer to the U.S. from the 2 a.m. update, the storm is currently forecast to be 204 miles west-southwest of Naples at 2 a.m. on Wednesday packing winds of 92 mph after being over land on Cuba on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles from the center of Ike, while tropical-force winds extend 145 miles. The so-called "cone of probability" has inched back to near the Southwest Florida coast.
From 11 p.m. Saturday:
Hurricane Ike slammed into the Turks and Caicos on Saturday as a ferocious Category 4 storm, raking the low-lying island chain with ferocious winds as people hunkered down at home or in emergency shelters.
As the massive gray wall of clouds descended on the Turks and Caicos, shopkeepers and homeowners in the city of Providenciales frantically covered windows with plywood, and boats were hauled ashore or secured with multiple anchors.
"I am very, very nervous," said John Moore, a fishing boat captain, as he tied down his 61-foot vessel in a Providenciales cove. "It looks like it might go right over us, so that's not a good picture."
The outer-bands of the storm brought fierce, palm-bending winds and a scattering of rain. Still, people lingered in the darkened streets or outside a couple of convenience stores that stayed open for last-minute shoppers. People trickled into makeshift shelter in a vocational school in the Five Cays neighborhood, a poor area that experienced heavy flooding during Hanna.
"Once we get the fury of this thing, believe me, you will see this open up," said Colin Bascomb, the school's principal.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said that Ike's eye was "near or over the Turks and Caicos" late Saturday night. It was moving west-southwest about 15 mph with maximum sustained winds were 135 mph (215 kph).
Desiree Adams, along with 11 members of her extended family, could hear the storm's powerful winds howling through the storm shutters of her Grand Turk home as Ike hit. The power was out, but they had water and food and battery-powered lanterns if necessary.
"We're all just laying down looking up at the dark ceiling and talking," Adams, a personal adviser to the island chain's chief minister for tourism issues, said by cell phone.
Grand Turk, the capital of the Turks and Caicos, is about six miles long, and home to about 3,000 people. Several hundred evacuated before the storm. It has little natural protection from the sea and expected storm surge, but Adams said she and her family were not afraid.
"We live by faith here," she said. "We believe in Jesus Christ so a lot of praying is going forth. There is going to be damage, no doubt, to infrastructure but that we can replace over time."
The approach of the hurricane also raised alarm in Haiti, where officials issued a tropical storm warning and feared it could worsen deadly flooding. And Cuba, still recovering from a devastating hit by Category 4 Hurricane Gustav last month, was directly in Ike's projected path.
Forecasters said Ike was expected to reach the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night or early Monday. Cuba's government warned people to be ready to take emergency action, but hotels said they had not yet started evacuating foreign guests.
Guantanamo Bay Navy base in southeast Cuba will go on "condition of readiness one" at 2 a.m. EDT (0600 GMT), meaning all ferries will be secured, beaches will be off limits and private cars will be banned from roads, said Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Robert Lamb.
Lamb said the commander will lift the restrictions after the hurricane has passed and a damage assessment is made at the U.S. base, where some 255 men suspected on links to the Taliban and al-Qaida in what the military says are hurricane-proof cells.
Turks and Caicos Premier Michael Misick said his government opened shelters throughout the islands and brought in an emergency food shipment.
"We're still praying that the storm will make a northerly turn and we will be spared, even a little bit," Misick told The Associated Press.
Low-lying Turks and Caicos and the neighboring Bahamas are vulnerable to flooding from rain and storm surge.
To reach Haitian immigrants, many of them illegal, the government broadcast emergency messages in Creole and told law enforcement figures not to enforce immigration laws during the storm.
In the Bahamas, the government urged tourists to evacuate the sparsely populated southeastern islands and the Royal Bahamas Defence Force dispatched marines to bring food and water to the eastern islands of Mayaguana and San Salvador.
Turks and Caicos, a British territory, was pummeled for four days by Hurricane Hanna earlier this week. It caused widespread flooding and some damage, but did far worse when it drifted toward Haiti as a tropical storm, creating floods that had killed 166 people by Saturday.
Dennis Freeburg, who lives in Providenciales, managed to get a flight out to Florida, but he plans to return to the island chain.
"This is just ... the bad part of living down in the Caribbean, you've got to deal with the storms," the 46-year-old said as he waited to board a flight to Miami with his miniature dachshund, Rue.
Off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Lowell formed late Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). Lowell's center was 265 miles (430 kms) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Posted at 10:30 p.m. Saturday
"Extremely dangerous" Hurricane Ike grew to fierce Category 4 strength Saturday as it roared on an uncertain path that forced millions from the Caribbean to Florida, and Louisiana to Mexico, to nervously wonder where it would eventually strike.
Preparations stretched more than 1,000 miles as the massive, 135-mph storm took a southwesterly shift that could send it over Cuba and the Florida Keys by Tuesday before heading into the warm open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. And once again, a possible target was New Orleans and the already storm-weary U.S. Gulf Coast.
"These storms have a mind of their own," Gov. Charlie Crist said after a meeting with mayors and emergency officials. "There are no rules, so what we have to do is be prepared, be smart, vigilant and alert."
First in Ike's path was the low-lying British territory of Turks and Caicos, already pummeled for four days this week by Tropical Storm Hanna. At the airport in Providenciales, Patrick Munroe had hoped to catch a departing flight, but was turned away, even before the airport shuttered.
"It looks really, really serious," he said. "And I think it's going to be devastating."
In Haiti, authorities tried to move thousands of people into shelters ahead of Ike, still struggling to recover from Tropical Storm Hanna. Rescue workers feared Hanna's death toll could rise into the hundreds in the flooded city of Gonaives and that aid efforts could be further impeded as Ike approached.
Hanna did not pack the same punch Saturday while racing up the U.S. Eastern seaboard, but it did cause one death in a traffic accident on Interstate 95 in Maryland. It also brought fits of wind and pelting rain all along its trek toward New England.
But Ike is another matter.
Tens of millions of people in countries spread over a swath of the hurricane zone monitored the trajectory of a storm that had a huge footprint, with tropical storm-force winds stretching up to 140 miles from its eye.
At 8 p.m. EDT, Ike's center was located about 60 miles east of Grand Turk Island as the storm moved west-southwest at about 15 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
The center said Ike remained a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of about 135 mph and gusts even higher.
Center meteorologist Colin McAdie said the core of Ike was expected to pass "near or over" the Turks and Caicos soon and begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas overnight.
"It's a very dangerous storm," McAdie told The Associated Press from Miami. He added all indications were that Ike would remain a powerful storm.
"There's going to be some ups and downs, but we expect it to remain a major hurricane over the next couple days," he added.
Tourists were urged to leave the Bahamas, and authorities in the Dominican Republic began evacuating dozens of families from river banks that could flood with waters from two already overfilled dams.
In Cuba, the island's top meteorologist warned Ike was a "true danger" and government officials began the early phases of emergency preparations. But no alarm was evident in Havana, where the U.S. soccer team was set to play Cuba in a World Cup qualifying match.
In Louisiana, still recovering from last week's Hurricane Gustav, Gov. Bobby Jindal set up a task force to prepare for the possibility of more havoc.
"We're not hoping for another strike, another storm, but we're ready," he said.
Even as Gustav evacuees headed home, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said officials were anxiously monitoring Ike's projected path toward the Gulf.
"Our citizens are weary and they're tired and they have spent a lot of money evacuating .. from Gustav," he said. He added that if Ike were to threaten, "my expectations this time is, it will be very difficult to move the kind of numbers out of this city that we moved during Gustav."
In Florida, batteries, water and gas cans became major commodities, as nearly the entire state appeared within the cone of areas that might be hit.
Jose Calbo planned to fly to Chicago later Saturday with his girlfriend, leaving his Miami-area home behind.
"Why be here without power and lights?" he asked. "There is nothing you can do. The best thing you can hope for is to board up the house, empty the freezer."
Visitors to the Florida Keys were under a mandatory evacuation order Saturday and a light but steady stream of traffic rolled out of Key West. In typical fashion, laid-back residents and business owners kept their shops, bars and restaurants open. But unique was the worry, still nearly four days ahead of potential landfall.
Jesse Damian hammered plywood over windows at The Bike Shop.
"The owners are usually like all the people who wait until the last minute around here," he said. "But this one's looking pretty bad."
Key West was last seriously affected by a hurricane in 2005, when Category 3 Wilma sped past. The town escaped widespread wind damage, but a storm surge flooded hundreds of homes and some businesses.
---
Posted at 8:17 p.m.
Fierce Hurricane Ike approaches Turks and Caicos
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says an "extremely dangerous" Hurricane Ike is roaring toward the Turks and Caicos islands as a fierce Category 4 storm.
The center said at 8 p.m. EDT Saturday that the core of the fierce hurricane would soon approach the low-lying British island territory. It added that Ike is packing powerful winds of 135 mph and has gusts even higher.
Forecasters in Miami say the eye of the big storm is located about 60 miles east of Grand Turk Island. Forecasters say the outer edge of the hurricane is expected to begin affecting parts of the Bahamas overnight as the storm approaches Cuba and South Florida sometime Sunday night or early Monday.
---
Posted at 5 p.m. Saturday:
Hurricane Ike nears Turks and Caicos, southern Bahamas
Hurricane Ike loomed over this low-lying island chain Saturday as a dangerous Category 3 storm, prompting thousands of people to evacuate while those staying behind hunkered down and hoped for the best.
As the massive gray wall of clouds approached from the east, people poured into the main supermarket in Providenciales, expecting that power would be knocked out and that food would suddenly become scarce.
Shopkeepers and homeowners covered windows with plywood. Boats were hauled ashore or secured with multiple anchors.
"I am very, very nervous," said John Moore, a fishing boat captain, as he tied down his 61-foot vessel in a Providenciales cove. "It looks like it might go right over us, so that's not a good picture."
Ike's eye was about 135 miles east of Grand Turk Island Saturday afternoon. It was moving west-southwest about 15 mph.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm's maximum sustained winds were 115 mph.
The approach of the hurricane also raised alarm in Haiti, where aid officials feared it could worsen deadly flooding. And Cuba, still recovering from a devastating hit by Category 4 Hurricane Gustav last month, was directly in Ike's projected path.
Cuba's communist government warned people to be ready to take emergency action, but resort hotels along its northern coast said they had not yet started evacuating foreign guests.
The storm was not expected to affect Saturday's World Cup soccer qualifier between the United States and Cuba in Havana.
U.S. military commanders at the Guantanamo Bay Navy base in southeast Cuba were coordinating storm preparations and securing anything that might be carried by the wind, said Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Robert Lamb. The U.S. base holds some 255 men suspected on links to the Taliban and al-Qaida in hurricane-proof cells.
Turks and Caicos Premier Michael Misick said his government opened a half dozen shelters and brought in an emergency food shipment.
"We're still praying that the storm will make a northerly turn and we will be spared, even a little bit," Misick told The Associated Press. "It's difficult to predict a storm of this magnitude."
Turks and Caicos and the neighboring Bahamas are close to sea level and are vulnerable to flooding from rain and storm surge.
To reach Haitian immigrants, many of them illegal, the government broadcast emergency messages in Creole and told law enforcement figures not to enforce immigration laws during the storm.
"At a time of disaster, the last thing on our mind is whether you are legal or not," Misick said. "The important thing is to save lives."
The airport in Providenciales closed after thousands of tourists and longtime residents of the typically tranquil island chain evacuated.
In the Bahamas, the government urged tourists to evacuate the sparsely populated southeastern islands and the Royal Bahamas Defence Force dispatched marines to bring food and water to the eastern islands of Mayaguana and San Salvador.
Turks and Caicos, a British territory, was pummeled for four days by Hurricane Hanna earlier this week. It caused widespread flooding and some damage, but did far worse when it drifted toward Haiti as a tropical storm, creating floods that had killed 163 people by Saturday.
Hanna then ran into the U.S. coast and on Saturday it was accelerating up the Atlantic Seaboard toward New England, gradually losing force after dropping heavy rain on the Carolinas but causing no reported deaths.
At least 2,000 people spent the night in shelters and almost 100,000 customers along the East Coast had no power midday Saturday.
Dennis Freeburg, who lives in Providenciales, managed to get a flight out to Florida, but he plans to return to the island chain, which he says is a paradise for scuba divers like him.
"This is just ... the bad part of living down in the Caribbean, you've got to deal with the storms," the 46-year-old said as he waited to board a flight to Miami with his miniature dachshund, Rue.
Posted at 3 p.m.:
Many flee Turks and Caicos as Ike approaches
Hurricane Ike barreled toward the Turks and Caicos as a powerful Category 3 storm Saturday, prompting an exodus of tourists and residents from the normally idyllic Atlantic island chain.
Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas appeared to be first in line to take a hit from Ike, and many people decided they would be better off elsewhere. For some, the decision to flee came too late.
Authorities planned to close the airport at noon, and even with extra flights scheduled, some had trouble finding seats.
"The flights look impossible at the moment," a dejected Patrick Munro said outside the terminal in Providenciales. He had hoped to return to his native Bahamas to be with his wife and child when the storm gets there.
"As i watched the weather forecast it looks really, really serious and I think it's going to be devastating," he said.
"I don't remember ever seeing a mass exodus like this," said Tracy Paradis, a longtime resident of Providenciales who was heading to Seattle with her 19-month-old twins to wait out the storm.
The low-lying island chain, a British overseas territory, was pummeled for four days by Hanna earlier this week. That storm caused widespread flooding, and knocked down trees, light poles and an important causeway that links North Caicos and Middle Caicos.
Premier Michael Misick toured some of the hardest-hit areas and pledged government aid while also warning people to heed the warnings about Ike.
Ike's eye was about 215 miles east of Grand Turk Island around dawn Saturday. It was moving west-southwest about 16 mph and had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. Forecasters said Ike could be near or over the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by early Sunday.
Beyond that along Ike's projected course stand Cuba's two chief tourist centers: Varadero beach and Havana, the seaside capital of 2.3 million people.
Many in the Turks and Caicos said that Hurricane Hanna gave them a sense of vulnerability.
"I've been here 13 years and Hanna was the strongest thing we've had," Dierin Longmire said as she checked in at the airport. "It shook me up."
She said she was closely monitoring the storm's approach and decided to start her vacation to Asia earlier than usual.
"I have a feeling it's going to be bad," she said.
Leslie Foss, a personal trainer who has lived in Turks for eight years, originally planned to ride it out. But the man who built her house in Providenciales and a friend in the Canadian coast guard encouraged her leave. She was evacuating with her Great Dane, Max.
"When people who have experienced these things ... are leaving, it just makes you think," said Foss, a native of Saskatchewan, Canada.
Business in Providenciales covered windows with plywood, and most hotels closed and ordered tourists out.
Jonathan Cohen, from Queens, New York, had already planned to return home Friday but others at the Club Med resort where he spent the week were forced to cut short their vacations.
"What we saw was pretty bad," the 35-year-old physician's assistant said. "So for it to be two, three times worse, well, it's time to get out of here."
Not everyone, however, was heading to the mainland. Many residents went about their business as usual — under mostly clear skies — and even a few tourists planned to stick it out. The airport in Providenciales was expected to close Saturday.
In the Bahamas, the government urged tourists to evacuate the sparsely populated southeastern islands.
"We are strongly encouraging all of our visitors to voluntarily evacuate," said Vernice Walkine, director general of the Tourism Ministry.
Posted at 11 p.m. Friday:
Hurricane Ike forecast to be near Naples on Wednesday
With Hurricane Ike barreling toward the Turks and Caicos islands as a powerful Category 3 storm, Gov. Charlie Crist issued an emergency declaration Friday for the entire state of Florida and officials in the Florida Keys ordered a mandatory evacuation for all visitors to begin Saturday morning.
Collier County Emergency Management Department officials called Ike a "serious storm (that) poses concern for Collier County for high winds and storm surge potential."
The Collier County Board of County Commissioners will hold a special meeting at 1 p.m. Sunday to determine if there is a need to declare a state of emergency.
Lee officials told emergency responders to rest this weekend, because if the storm stays on its current track, the county Emergency Operation Center will activate at 8 a.m. Monday.
Ike was still in the open Atlantic Ocean on Friday night, but forecasts showed it could make landfall in Florida next week as a strong hurricane. It could also miss the state, as Tropical Storm Hanna did.
Crist said Floridians statewide should be prepared for winds exceeding 115 mph, flash flooding, ocean rip currents and tornadoes.
At 8 p.m. Friday, Ike’s eye was about 420 miles east of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-southwest about 15 mph and had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. Forecasters said Ike should shift more to the west Saturday and could be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.
In the Keys, the Monroe County Office of Emergency Management said visitors must leave starting at 9 a.m. Saturday. A phased evacuation for residents will start Sunday morning. Key West and the lower Keys will be evacuated first. The middle and northern Keys will follow later in the day.
Tropical storm force winds could arrive in the Keys as early as Monday night.
Officials in Collier and Lee advised residents to update their hurricane plans and monitor news reports for new information. No shelter operations, evacuations or protective action recommendations have been scheduled at this point.
Lee County Public Safety director John Wilson had some advice for emergency responders.
“Please try to get some rest this weekend,” he told the few dozen deputies, firefighters and others girding for the worst at a briefing Friday afternoon. “I know we just made your weekend.”
Wilson said if Ike continues along its current track, the county Emergency Operation Center will activate at 8 a.m. Monday. He said there’s no need yet to talk about evacuations, but the 500 or so east Bonita Springs residents currently calling the Estero Community Center home will stay there for now.
“We’re pretty much continuing the ongoing shelter for Manna Christian,” he said. “We don’t see any sense in them going home right now even though the water is receding.”
Heavy rains in southeast Lee could reverse the draining waters.
Ike could be a worst-case scenario for Southwest Florida if it follows the predicted track, which takes it north of Cuba before turning north to parallel the coast. That current track puts it just off the Southwest Florida coast Wednesday morning.
Wilson urged agencies to get ready, and to urge the residents they protect to do so, too.
“Hopefully this’ll be it,” he said of the Friday briefing. “This track may go elsewhere.”
Facing the threat of Ike’s fury, tourists and even longtime residents from the normally idyllic Turks and Caicos islands were fleeing. Hanna pummeled the islands for four days as a much weaker storm earlier in the week, knocking down trees and light poles and flooding low-lying islands.
“I’ve been here 13 years and Hanna was the strongest thing we’ve had,” Dierin Longmire said as she checked in at the airport. “It shook me up.”
Longmire said she had been monitoring Ike’s progress in what seems like a direct line toward Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas. The Baltimore native decided to start her vacation to Asia earlier than usual.
“I have a feeling it’s going to be bad,” she said.
Leslie Foss, a personal trainer who has lived in Turks for eight years, originally planned to ride it out, but the man who built her house in Providenciales and a friend in the Canadian coast guard both encouraged her to get to the mainland. She was evacuating with her Great Dane, Max.
“When people who have experienced these things ... are leaving, it just makes you think,” said the native of Saskatchewan, Canada.
Throughout Providenciales, nearly every business had covered its windows with plywood. Most hotels were closed and had ordered tourists out.
Jonathan Cohen, from Queens, New York, had already planned to return home Friday but others at the Club Med resort where he spent the week were forced to cut short their vacations.
After four days of “nothing but darkness, rain, storm and high winds,” from Hanna, it was a good idea to leave, Cohen said.
“What we saw was pretty bad,” the 35-year-old physician’s assistant said. “So for it to be two, three times worse, well, it’s time to get out of here.”
Not everyone, however, was heading to the mainland. Many locals went about their business as usual — under mostly clear skies — and even a few tourists planned to stick it out. Many stores and the airport in Providenciales were expected to close today.
In the Bahamas, the government urged tourists to evacuate as Ike approaches the sparsely populated southeastern islands.
“We are strongly encouraging all of our visitors to voluntarily evacuate,” Vernice Walkine, director general of the Tourism Ministry, said at a news conference.
Bennett and Joyce Varghese, of Clifton, N.J., were the only tourists on a nearly empty Boeing 737 arriving in Turks from Miami. They had been planning their trip for months and didn’t want to cancel. Neither had been to Turks before or ever experienced a hurricane.
“Summer’s ending, and we wanted to get a trip in,” Bennett Varghese said. “If we have to stay a few extra days, that’s fine.”
From 11 a.m.
The 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Ike forecast to move south of Naples, but still packing 115 mph winds on Wednesday.
Earlier forecasts put the storm to the east of Naples, but the 11 a.m. update, based on computer models, puts the storm 46 miles south-southwest of Naples at 8 a.m. on Wednesday. With hurricane force winds punching out more than 30 miles, the Naples area must keep watch on this storm.
From 5 a.m.
Hurricane Ike remains a "dangerous" Category 3 storm this morning, with the current forecast track taking it into the Naples area early Wednesday morning with winds of nearly 110 mph.
The National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. update puts the storm 50 miles east of Naples at 2 a.m. Wednesday (254 miles southeast at 2 a.m. on Tuesday). Hurricane force winds extend 35 miles from the center of Ike, with tropical force winds stretching more than 100 miles from the center.
At 5 a.m., the eye of Ike was 460 miles north of the Leeward Island on track into the Bahamas.
Check back with naplesnews.com for the latest on the storm.

Comments
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I hope you're right naplestrek. Thank you for posting!
#1 Posted by itsawonderfullife on September 5, 2008 at 6:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)
worry warts.
#2 Posted by cornandbeans on September 5, 2008 at 6:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
firehauck,
Give it a rest already. If NDN didn't cover the storm at all you would complain.
The latest models have it coming awfully close. Regardless of category, we need to watch this storm.
People who complain about an article must be intellectually lazy if they get their news from only one source.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/...
#3 Posted by Sanity on September 5, 2008 at 7:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I don't like "IKE"
#4 Posted by deltaraider21 on September 5, 2008 at 8:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Well, at least someone's moving to Naples.
I bet Ike will have 150 messages from Naples Realtors when he gets home: "hi heard you're moving to Naples", "hello! I understand you're moving to Naples", "I heard you're moving to our lovely town", "when can we get together?", "have you found a Realtor yet?", "we should talk, I know the area.. heck I've been here 2 weeks myself!"....
you get the idea.
#5 Posted by GeorgeGlass on September 5, 2008 at 8:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)
According to NOAA they don't show Ike going over Cuba in their 5 day forecast. I'm sure one of the models show but in looking at the information discussions they didn't say anything about a shear, just the high that's going to be pushing it into us.......but that's ok. Stay unprepared.
I for one don't mind NDN's update, it's better than not getting any information, during this time of year I stay prepared, been thru too many not to.
#6 Posted by Typeone on September 5, 2008 at 8:49 a.m. (Suggest removal)
This storm is will be one that we will need to watch. It's time to prepare not panic.
Currently there are a number of different models taking this storm to different places. It could move anywhere from the off the east coast of Florida to through Cuba and into the Gulf.
The NHC track (the one that NDN is using) is placed in the center of the different model tracks for the time being. Even in the NHC discussion section it states that they don't have high confidence in the location of this storm in 4-5 days.
Much of the track will depend on the location of the high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.
I would hope that everyone is prepared for hurricane season by now but if you are not, this weekend would be a good time to start.
#7 Posted by swfl_ff on September 5, 2008 at 8:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Sounds like a trip to the liquor store is in order. Gotta get the supplies together!
#8 Posted by SandnSurf on September 5, 2008 at 9:16 a.m. (Suggest removal)
NHC uses the models you see (and more) on Weatherunderground to make the forecast. The models vary because the time they are run by the super computers vary as does the input. Some models perform better some years and others do better in yet other years. The information input and programming is different. There are so many variables in tropical cyclones (hurricanes) that a single human cannot take all these dynamic conditions into consideration.
The collaborative effort of many meteorological scientists reviewing the now familiar spaghetti models is what comprises the forecast and the probabilities indicated by the cone.
Obviously, we all need to keep updated about this storm. We all should be as prepared as possible during the beginning of the hurricane season with long term planning for the 6 months we see more frequent events. Only when an event appears imminent do you need to do the last minute things such as close up, roll down or put up the shutters, bring in the objects in your yard which could become missiles, top off your gas tank, make sure you have some cash and perhaps fill up your bath tub.
Getting ready should never entail panic. But you need to know if you are in an area (like the high hazard coastal zone) which could mean evacuating.
I read the DISCUSSIONS available to all on the NHC site, from Dr. Masters on his Wunderblog and the boards at Skeetobyte as well as Accuweather.
Sometimes they are in full agreement and sometimes they have some variation, but they are not radically different.
When Charlie came at the area, only the local TV meteorologists were able to forecast and issue immediate warnings the slight wobble which brought it into the Punta Gorda area. They had real time radar and weren't extrapolating via computer programs as all others had to do. They believed this real time radar.
So, listen to many sources (they all have something to offer) and prepare...DO Not panic.
#9 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 5, 2008 at 9:34 a.m. (Suggest removal)
PS, my insight to how NHC and others collaborate to come up with storm paths is from a good friend who happens to be an extremely bright meteorologist and physicist who has worked both in private industry as well as for the government.
#10 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 5, 2008 at 9:38 a.m. (Suggest removal)
If we keep up with the cooler weather we have been having the last couple of days that is all to the good.
That should cause it to weaken the closer it gets to us.
I hope.
#11 Posted by Neal on September 5, 2008 at 9:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I just happened to check a couple of weather sites (wunderground.com and NBC-2.com)a few minutes ago. It appears that many of the latest computer models are now pushing the storm south through Cuba then into the Gulf. That has changed some from earlier.
It will continue to change for another day or two. Bottom line it is too early to predict just where Ike will end up.
It will be interesting to see the 11AM update to see how or if it changes at all.
#12 Posted by swfl_ff on September 5, 2008 at 10:17 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Get ready, then let's have another online party to keep us sane while waiting for whatever is to come....I know I've got to restock a few supplies that we ate through after Fay...You know, munchies, that kind of stuff. And, have to get puppy food even though my hogs could use a diet....Being prepared and panicking are two different things, but I will be prepared, have no doubt about that...Heck, Gustav pushed the tides up into my yard and over our streets. Fay brought us bunches of rain and some wind...And she was supposed to be worse than Gustav. Oh, and I'll have FEMA's number on speed dial so I can whine and cry about being paid for a motel and for gas for the evacuation and for food. did anyone else see that in the news? A couple of young punks griping about the government not giving them money for food and gas..That's bull...Let them get out and help their neighbors..(this of course was in New Orleans). Oh well, we'll know within five days where Ike lands I guess, won't we???
#13 Posted by mothernature on September 5, 2008 at 10:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)
And here I thought Ike was going to Nutbush, Tennessee.
#14 Posted by Mims1 on September 5, 2008 at 10:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Well from my 36 yrs of flying commercial aircraft in all kinds of weather, let me just say this. It's a Hurricane, and it goes where it pleases. There are a lot of things that can make it change its course or strength so all we can do is wait it out. We in the aviation world didn't call them "weather guessers" for nothing. Most forecasts were about 85% correct, which isn't bad, but sometimes they really blew it. That's why you have a alternate airport in the flight plan.
#15 Posted by cit10driver on September 5, 2008 at 11:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Isn't the 5-Day positioning as of 11am (9/5/08) worse than prior forecast? Now we have an unobstructed eye wall just off our coast whereas before we had it making landfall on the East Coast of FL. Still a lot can change (especially turning north later) between now and Wednesday morning.
#16 Posted by mrroute66 on September 5, 2008 at 11:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Remember folks, don't mess with Mother Nature:)
#17 Posted by mothernature on September 5, 2008 at 11:14 a.m. (Suggest removal)
If this track stays true...
That will put us on the North and East side of Ike....not good.
I suggest everyone start preparations.
Pack a suitcase, clean up your yard and plan your route if you evacuate.
Better safe, than sorry.
I have lived through enough hurricanes...
I don't wait and see anymore.
#18 Posted by SaraBeth on September 5, 2008 at 11:19 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Will pres Bush be watching from texas again?
#19 Posted by Elle on September 5, 2008 at 11:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)
cit10driver: Appreciate your opinion with your background former commercial pilot. 85% is a pretty good record but the 15% needs always to be kept in mind.
Everyone should have a back up plan (or several), just like pilots do. You know first hand how important redundancy is. Spent some time with Airdales when serving.
Just browsing news cable channels and I noticed that Crist is heading to "south Florida" aka Miami. The focus by the State will be on the East coast because of the population concentration even if the storm is more likely to hit on the west coast. But being that the state is so narrow this far south, it may not be a bad plan. Watching who will activate the Emergency Ops Center first will be interesting. Any (theoretical) bets?
#20 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 5, 2008 at 11:42 a.m. (Suggest removal)
hurricane store supply list
canned food aka spaghettios, spam and what not...
water, just in case
vodka
beer
wine
ok i think i am good, just in case better have all my "supplies" in order.
#21 Posted by bubs1980 on September 5, 2008 at 11:57 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Sarabeth....you're right on with the northeast quadrant, the worse part of a hurricane.
So what's wrong with being prepared 'in case'?
If you fill your bath tub now, and Ike doesn't come, just use that water to bathe the dogs or use it to flush your toilets.
What's 'panicky' about cleaning the missiles off of your property NOW?
Get your gas now, before the price goes up.
Ah, just be responsible.
#22 Posted by eaglebeak on September 5, 2008 at 12:01 p.m. (Suggest removal)
#34 Posted by Ryu: "This thing wasn't even going near us yesterday. What do weathermen do, flip a coin?"
No, they run computer models that take into account the known variables and then add the margin of error to come up with a path/cone.
#23 Posted by jim09091 on September 5, 2008 at 12:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
It's always a good idea to get your supplies in order, but as normal we have those who ignore common sense before the storm, and rush to FEMA after crying that you just didn't know. Your choice as an American, but if you prefer to stand in line for handouts when the rest of us are grilling burgers it's up to you.Many of the blogs are thinking this is our next Donna. Could they be wrong? YES! The question you must ask is what if they are right? Do you have the ability to make it 2 weeks without power? 5 days without food in the stores? I guess next week we will all find out who is prepared to the proper levels.Should this storm hit we are not the only part of the country that will be going through it!
#24 Posted by Messina on September 5, 2008 at 12:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I'm thinking the storms path will continued to be pushed south. The 11am update states that the storm surprisingly began moving a bit south, well ahead of when they expected it to. Read the 11am update.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/pics...
#25 Posted by mjs146 on September 5, 2008 at 12:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Dear cit10driver, BlueTonguedVole & posters,
Agree. Information defeats panic, the true enemy. Websites and TV provide information useful to make an informed decision and maintain peace of mind.
"Radio Bahamas", ZNS-1 1540 AM proves invaluable when storms approach from our east. Night reception when many storms hit is excellent and the recently revitalized signal can be heard during the day. During Hurricanes Frances and Jean's approach, ZNS-1 aired continuous accurate reports from Out Islanders. They proved to be an invaluable early warning system.
Naples Airport sells the FAA's JN-47 wall chart. It's uncanny what paper plotting can reveal about future tracks.
Some who peddle hysteria do so to turn public anxiety into private gain.
Paul Vincent Zecchino
Manasota Key, Florida
05 September, 2008
#26 Posted by paul_vincent_zecchino on September 5, 2008 at 1:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Start Packing that water and that food because ike is coming to town.
#27 Posted by YoungC on September 5, 2008 at 2 p.m. (Suggest removal)
If it is coming HERE, why is our governor going to Miami Broward etc??? (see mia examiner website)
#28 Posted by chrysf56 on September 5, 2008 at 2:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The best thing for us is the five day forecast puts a bullseye on Naples. It never happens. We will be spared. I would worry a lot more if they said it would hit Belize in five days.
#29 Posted by cornandbeans on September 5, 2008 at 2:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Dear Doc Z,
Thanks for the information. I will check out the radio station and wall chart.
Collier EM just sent out press releases and the BCC will meet in emergency session on Sunday to review what next steps need to be taken (hint, they will declare a state of emergency.)
chysf56 you asked why Christ Opps sorry Crist would go to Broward, etc. first if the storm comes here? Simple, more people live on the east coast. (more potential carnage) Consider how narrow the state is this far south. Hit the west coast and the east coast could take a hit too. Often the worst damage is beyond the actual landfall but it depends on the particular storm. The east coast would be harder to evacuate, also. Not that it would be a picnic here if this storm ramps up and takes aim on Collier.
He did visit the EOC during Fay, so he may come here or just send his Lt. Gov. Kottkamp who is from Cape Coral.
#30 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 5, 2008 at 2:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I have bunches of hot chocolate for when the cold front moves through...Meantime, hi all. Let me know when you want to start kicking the party...
#31 Posted by mothernature on September 5, 2008 at 2:41 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Are we not gonna party for this one? Geez I moved to Naples for a reason.... PARTIES!!! When my kids get their inheritance I have strict guidelines that they must party tooo....... Bring on the CANES!!!!
#32 Posted by theabyss on September 5, 2008 at 4:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)
4
#33 Posted by almostdone on September 5, 2008 at 7:03 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Time to UPDATE your story, NDN!
#34 Posted by compteach on September 5, 2008 at 7:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Sorry, I should have been more specific. It's 7:36 P.M.
Your 10:51 A.M. "UPDATE" may no longer be valid.
#35 Posted by compteach on September 5, 2008 at 7:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I got the propane stove, crank radio, and the keg of beer! Good times!
#36 Posted by CEQ15 on September 5, 2008 at 8:14 p.m. (Suggest removal)
How about an update NDN?
#37 Posted by ford46 on September 5, 2008 at 8:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)
jfk: can't go...Florida is too narrow to really escape unless you leave like snowbirds do! We have reinforced the house (it was built to the newest standards) and can manage on our own for weeks if necessary.
Fortunately we are out of the reach of any but the most severe storm surge.
Thought our motto (here) is "shelter in place" aka "hide from the wind" "run from the water"??? Isn't that what our local emergency manager recommends?
#38 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 5, 2008 at 9:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
redrover...I'm with U!
Party on!
I just wonder when these freakin storms will stop.
Totally annoying...placing a kink in my social life...the minimal life of socializing that I have time for.
It's raining...it's poring...
the old man is snoring.
Bumped his head
On the bed
and couldn't get up this morning
When it rains...it pours.
So I shall pour....
more rootbeers for redrover,
Gin for BTV or was it RUM
mimibuck...a martini?
RYU deserves some greek wine for the toga party!
and a toast to Dr. Z...2 funny 2 me!
#39 Posted by beetlejuice on September 5, 2008 at 9:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Strong CAT 3 or weak CAT 4 off Naples coast. Depending on the distance from the eye, we are in for alot of wind, rain and tornado potential. Wait till the 11 PM tomorrow for more certainty but, based on how accurate some of the most recent storm tracking has been, I'd bet on what I just said.
Forget the wind shear discussion, if anything, a good infusion of dry air from the west could help us out alot but, that is already happening and I don't know if the infusion of dry air can be sustained.
#40 Posted by RunSilentRunDeep on September 5, 2008 at 9:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
beetle, are you hitting the root beer early?
???what???The_Brooks??? Are you suggesting that something we say here could influence what happens with a hurricane? Please clarify, thanks.
RunSilent, it would be great if there were more shear or if the path was further west
#41 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 5, 2008 at 10:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)
You can bet once Sarah is President, that none of those male-monikered storms will even DARE to approach her shores!!!
#42 Posted by Naplestango on September 5, 2008 at 10:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Just checking out the latest computer models on the various weather web sites. A number of them have updated since 5PM.
Right now for what it's worth things may be looking a bit better for us. Most all the models now are keeping the storm to the south and west of us. The NHC mentioned in their 5PM discussion post that they were expecting that this might happen.
Of course it's still several days out so only time will tell. Let's all be prepared but keep a good thought in the mean time.
#43 Posted by swfl_ff on September 5, 2008 at 10:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
BTV...these storms are annoying me.
Gimme a break BTV.
It's one after another, after another.
IT STINKS!
If anything, this storm will land fall on the East Coast, thereby weakening it a bit.
Maybe it is a bunch a bull s___it.
But I have my water, and my survival kit.
Let's see what this storm brings with it.
#44 Posted by beetlejuice on September 5, 2008 at 11:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I found a really cool storm tracker. It plays back the track. Check it out:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/...
#45 Posted by Elle on September 5, 2008 at 11:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Elle.. Great tracker. As always... to early to drop the guard but it is looking better for us but, GOOD LORD... RELOCATE NEW ORLEANS.. serious stuff here.
#46 Posted by RunSilentRunDeep on September 5, 2008 at 11:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Tracking these storms is redundant...
A quick break would be nice....maybe a two year break would give locals a moment to recover.
Can you imagine what residents of LA. are going through with another impending storm?
#47 Posted by beetlejuice on September 6, 2008 at 12:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I truly hope you folks arent relying on those modules, Ike is definetly going to hit between homestead and everglades national park, this is a fairly powerful sophisticated system.I really hope you dont think its going to cross the keys or more south and we will be out of the woods, now way jose! not with this system, pretty much all of south florida will feel ike's path the path is just to favorable with this storm, south florida has gotten to lucky with hurricanes coming from this direction heading westward just scrapping key west into the gulf in the past too many times, Not this time! You will see more of a northwest change in direction at the 5.am advisory bringing Ike into the southeast tip of florida.Every one strap on and be ready for a pretty nice hit in south florida.
#48 Posted by hurricanefreak2009 on September 6, 2008 at 1:24 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The reason why i posted is because Ikes computer modules have been to shakey the past 18 hours bringing the storms land fall north and south inconsistently, may even make land fall closer to Miami just south of Homstead. I just wanted my south florida people in this region ready for a change in direction with this thing just in case.
#49 Posted by hurricanefreak2009 on September 6, 2008 at 1:33 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I may have a pretty decent model for you guys if my computer can configure this new hurricane tracking program me and a few of my friends at work created this past july.
#50 Posted by hurricanefreak2009 on September 6, 2008 at 2:14 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Excuse my term modules, It a weather science term and has the same meaning as model or models, I do appoligize.
#51 Posted by hurricanefreak2009 on September 6, 2008 at 2:25 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Ok the lastest i have concerning Ikes northwest turn. Depending on the 2 high pressure systems one in the gulf of mexico and the other which is in the atlantic. If the atlantic high moves more quicker to the east this will give Ike the sooner oppurnity to pull Ike in a NW direction steering the storm in south floridas direction. Now if the High moves slower Ike will most likely stay on a westward path, but who knows.
#52 Posted by hurricanefreak2009 on September 6, 2008 at 2:43 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Hey Beets, didn't we have a two-year break? 2006-07?
#53 Posted by mothernature on September 6, 2008 at 7:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Don't you hear them say they STILL don't know where IKE is going???? Weather is a funny thing and always changing! They are just trying to PROTECT folks and warn them of possible danger! Some folks are so stupid and think they will never get hurt! Those are the ones that eventually do because of their stupidity! Why don't you stop knocking those trying to help and get with it!????? Oh yeah, people like you never learn.........
#54 Posted by MLBALME on September 6, 2008 at 9:42 a.m. (Suggest removal)
It appears there are a few folks (one) who believe that their expertise in interpreting weather is beyond that of the large number of true experts who work for the National Hurricane Center. These meteorologists and other scientists often have multiple degrees and have a reasonable record with hurricanes. As the retired commercial pilot mentioned they do seem sometimes to be "guessing" but he came up with an 85% accuracy rate.
I am sure that we all would like them to have 100% accuracy, but even the super computers cannot take all the variables into consideration because the variables are SO dynamic.
So, if you want to know how the NHC comes up with the probabilities reflected in a single graphic please check out #16. My information came from a very bright, well educated meteorological scientist.
Key is that you need to prepare as if the storm could hit us, but the last minute stuff can be done calmly. Just top off the gas tank, make sure you have adequate cash and double check your supplies.
Keep an eye (ear) to the TV and radio and multimedia for updates. At a certain point if the Emergency officials feel we are at risk for a direct hit the media will keep you informed. Make sure you have time to secure your home.
It takes us about 30 minutes to close up our shutters and make sure all items which could blow around the yard are secure. Some residents will need more time. Keep that in mind.
Don't focus on the models. You can certainly check out how well they have done so far with this storm on Weatherunderground, but let the true experts provide the advice. I also suggest reading the discussion when you go to the NHC site to look at the graphics. Read the discussion that Dr. Masters put up in his blog, read it all, but don't get so hung up in thinking that a few graphics on any site will predict the future of this storm. Mother Nature has some surprises which can blindside even the best of the experts.
#55 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 6, 2008 at 10:02 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Is it just my computer, or are the spaghetti legs missing on wunderground?
#56 Posted by eaglebeak on September 6, 2008 at 10:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
PS, I do not believe the media wants to "instill panic". They like to sensationalize stories to sell ads, get viewers or subscribers, but this kind of story is mostly to keep the public informed, to do what many don't have the time to do: peruse the weather sites and be a weather "junkie" A lot of people are deeply interested in weather, but no matter how bright they may be, unless they have credentials and experience in real forecasting, please take their advice with a grain of salt.
#57 Posted by BlueTonguedVole on September 6, 2008 at 10:08 a.m. (Suggest removal)
No it's not your computer eaglbeak, I just checked there myself and it is not showing the spaghetti strings. Must be a problem on their end. There are a number of other sites including NBC-2.com that show the models.
I agree BTV that everyone should read the discussion page from the National Hurricane Center. You can get to it at the NHC site of course and there is also a link from wunderground.com. Also Jeff Master's blogs on wunderground.com are very informative. He explains things in lay mens' terms very well without hype.
The NHC discussion page does a good job explaining how the NHC arrives at their forecasts. All day yesterday they stated that they felt that the forecast would move further south and west just as it has. They were taking the conservative route with their predictions and keeping the track to the north as a precaution. They also have been saying not to put to much weight on the center line as it was nothing more than the middle ground of the various models and that it would most likely change.
As of this morning most all the models are becoming aligned pretty well. Once this happens the NHC begins to have a much higher confidence in their forecasts.
If everything holds up we may dodge the worst of the bullet on this one. Time will tell. I am ready just in case.
#58 Posted by swfl_ff on September 6, 2008 at 10:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The computer models are visible on wunderground.com again.
Some of the models seem to be starting to spread out a bit again for the long range forecast. Some go west toward Texas and some bring it north off of Florida's west coast.
It is fascinating to see how the models change every few hours.
#59 Posted by swfl_ff on September 6, 2008 at 11:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)